Analysis: Arm CEO replaced as ‘unwanted’ sale to Nvidia is cancelled
As had been expected, the deal for SoftBank Group to sell processor architecture licensor Arm to graphics chip vendor Nvidia has been cancelled. Instead SoftBank is preparing Arm for an initial public offering of shares under a new CEO.
自2013年以来，Simon Segars被带领的武装，辞去了NVIDIA和Softbank已取消了价值从400亿美元到800亿美元升级的交易。价值上涨是由于NVIDIA的股价上升。塞加尔斯被Rene Haas取代，即时效果。自2017年以来，HAAS一直是IP产品集团（IPG）的领导者，并于2013年加入公司。
Meanwhile SoftBank has said it is preparing Arm for an IPO sometime within the fiscal year to March 31, 2023. The disappointment of Masayoshi Son, founder chairman and CEO of SoftBank, at the failed deal will be alleviated by the fact that SoftBank will retain the $1.25 billion pre-paid by Nvidia under the terms of the agreement.
今年早些时候，这笔交易的第一个提示即使是NVIDIA和ARM共同向英国竞争和市场管理局辩护辩护。CMA只是几个监管机构之一，这是一项漫长的难看这笔交易（见Report: Nvidia prepares to abandon Arm deal和NVIDIA-ARM在英国交易探测中播放“强大英特尔”卡).
Nvidia’s deal was announced in September 2020 (see武装到NVIDIA的销售商定为400亿美元) but was immediately met with criticism. This mainly took the form that Arm’s independence from all its licensees was an essential part of its business model. Nvidia being both a user of Arm architecture and owner would give it an advantage that would eventually drive licensees to switch to the open-source RISC-V or other processor architectures, the argument ran.
From the beginning Jensen Huang, CEO and founder of Nvidia, had laid out arguments, assurances and spending promises, that were intended to persuade observers, politicians and regulators. He argued that the deal was necessary to bolster and accelerate Arm in competition against processor leaders Intel and Advanced Micro Devices and the rising stars of artificial intelligence processing.
But the assurances did little to comfort the broader intellectual property ecosystem that has evolved around Arm. Several high-profile licensees including Google, Microsoft and Qualcomm, were public in their opposition to the deal. And the fundamental argument was not overcome, which was there was little that Nvidia could acquire by ownership that it could not pursue as an Arm licensee.
Huang has now been forced to flip back to the licensee rhetoric. In the statement announcing cancellation of the deal he said: “Arm has a bright future, and we’ll continue to support them as a proud licensee for decades to come. Arm is at the center of the important dynamics in computing. Though we won’t be one company, we will partner closely with Arm. The significant investments that Masa has made have positioned Arm to expand the reach of the Arm CPU beyond client computing to supercomputing, cloud, AI and robotics. I expect Arm to be the most important CPU architecture of the next decade.”
下一篇：喜剧最重要的部分
But in many ways the deal was a victim of the most important part of comedy – timing.
由于利用AI在数据中心脱掉NVIDIA的情况下非常好，其股价上涨给了它为规模大发挥作用的主要机会。数据中心业务进一步加速了由Covid-19大流行围绕世界扭曲的锁定和工作的锁定和工作。但是只有关于交易的时间被宣布筹码短缺变得明显（见Volkswagen faces massive chip shortages).
Suddenly politicians in multiple governments were being made very aware of the strategic importance of technology and semiconductors. Nvidia and Arm have been trying to sell the deal to regulators in the UK, Europe, China and the US and have made little to no progress in the 17 months since the deal was announced. At the outset Huang had stated that he hoped to get the deal done with 18 months, which had become impossible.
最后一块糟糕的时机是在semiconductor market supercycle. The semiconductor market has always been one of boom bust but the latest cycle has been drawn out as chip manufacturers sought to resist over investment. But in the last couple of years leading and not-so leading chip manufacturers have started ramping capital expenditure and it is now predicted that the chip market will tip into recession around the end of this year 2022 (see芯片市场经济衰退即将来临：'支持'生产是重大威胁).
As we indicated last month SoftBank was coming under time pressure. If the deal was not going to pass scrutiny with the regulators it would be better to stage the IPO while semiconductor stocks are still attractive. A change to an oversupply of manufacturing capacity and collapse of average sales prices (ASPs) would likely hit the revenues and market valuations of companies across the chip sector.
尽管软银本身一整年了get the IPO deal done I expect it to come sooner rather than later.
And after a couple of years distraction as potentially the biggest deal in semiconductor history we may see a return to the status quo ante with the major change being the departure of Segars. Segars, who had spent 30 years with Arm and had risen from graduate engineer, will continue in the short-term in an advisory role to allow for a smooth transition to Haas.
Next: How did Segars do?
ARM的塞加尔斯的任期伴随着巨大的增长。但我们已经习惯了，现在他的负责时间出现了几个错误步骤。
它是SEGAGS与Masayoshi Son，Softbank的创始人主席和首席执行官开会，允许在2016年夏季迅速出售SoftBank约为320亿美元。这笔交易让ARM私密，并通过英国政客们在夏季休息时迎来了。当他们回来的时候完成了这笔交易。这也是在英国的一段时间内，至少有了技术的战略重要性的认识。
它也是塞加尔斯的手表，该手臂掌控地陷入了对中国子公司控制的混乱状态（见报告：ARM中国在自动驾驶中进行独立举措和ARM’s China struggle threatens Nvidia deal). For those that need a refresher Arm has tried to remove from office the CEO of its Chinese subsidiary and found it impossible to do so. This has led to confusion over the control of funds and licensing in China. I refer to it as Arm getting mugged in China. That is not to say that it could not have happened to another CEO. But the situation has been allowed to persist and is a headache that awaits incoming CEO Rene Haas.
And finally, Segars got on-board with Huang’s idea of a greater Nvidia built on Arm design expertise. For a company that has always emphasised the importance of the design ecosystem it is strange that Segars did not foresee that ecosystem’s ability to oppose the deal.
But we should not be too concerned. Segars can go on to great things, possibly as a technology CEO elsewhere, but more likely as a director and venture capitalist. He can be part of the cycle of renewal of technology entrepreneurship. We may hope he will do that in the UK and Europe but Segars has always seemed very comfortable in Silicon Valley.
In the announcement of his departure Segars stated: “Arm has defined my working life, and I am very thankful for being given the opportunity to grow from graduate engineer to CEO. I’m very bullish on Arm’s future success under Rene’s leadership and can’t think of any anyone better to lead the company through its next chapter.”
Next: London or New York
Haas will now be responsible for returning Arm to being a public company. Already the arguments are starting to rage about whether that should be on the London Stock Exchange or the New York Stock Exchange. UK politicians, awake to opportunity, are already pressing for London to try and keep ownership domestic.
该决定最终可能是SoftBank的，他们可以在纽约和伦敦进行联合上市，在2016年之前配置的方式。
Under the leadership of Haas, Arm’s intellectual property group has achieved record royalty revenue, licensing revenue and profits in the current financial year. Before joining Arm Haas held several applications management, applications engineering and product engineering roles, including seven years at Nvidia as vice president and general manager of its computing products business.
The Nvidia-Arm saga may not yet be done but Huang-Haas/Nvidia-Arm will cooperate as licensee and licensor and it seems that is the outcome that most people wanted.
Related links and articles:
新闻文章：
Report: Nvidia prepares to abandon Arm deal
Volkswagen faces massive chip shortages
ARM’s China struggle threatens Nvidia deal
UK orders more scrutiny of Nvidia-ARM deal
Europe set to extend investigation of Nvidia-ARM deal
