合并将改变汽车芯片行业，说Yole -Eenews Europe

合并将改变汽车芯片行业说Yole

Market news | September 16, 2021

A technology analysis firm Yole Développement sees major challenges ahead for the car industry as semiconductors become even more important.阅读更多

By Nick Flaherty

YoleDévelopment的一份报告说，汽车芯片行业将在未来十年中面临一些关键挑战，而半导体对于生产变得越来越重要。

由于软件定义的汽车，自动驾驶和连接的车辆等概念，每辆车的半导体含量的价值将会增加，并且显着。在直到2026年期间，Yole分析师预测复合年增长率为14.75％。“半导体在芯片水平上的价值将从2020年的344亿美元增长到2026年的785亿美元，”YoleDévelopment（Yole）市场研究总监Eric Mounier博士说。由于主要转移到电气化，最大的生长将是电动汽车。

正如Yole团队在2021年新汽车半导体趋势报告中所分析的那样，Wafer发货将从2000万次增长到超过4500万，其中8英寸是最常用的晶圆尺寸。20nm节点及以下将由ADA和信息娱乐应用程序驱动。

“Today, most of the wafer production for automotive is for 130/180 nm and more, and leading-edge technology is very scarce. But 40nm and 28nm are used for the Mobileye EyeQ3 and EyeQ4 for ADAS and autonomy. Memory for infotainment and ADAS use 10-14 nm. In the future, 7nm could be used for ADAS. The current chip shortage mainly affects nodes in the 40-180nm range,” said Mounier.

COVID-19危机还强调了半导体在汽车中的重要性。来自半导体和软件方面的公司具有强大的财务能力，可以收购一些层或2级公司的公司。Yole分析师说，这可能会在未来几年重塑汽车景观。

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据市场研究人员称，今天的一辆汽车平均价值450美元的半导体。在2026年，将为700美元。汽车发展是由C.A.S.E.的技术发展驱动的。（连通性，ADA，共享和电气化）到2035年将增长到3180亿美元。

连通性将从2020年的近330亿美元增长到2026年的近550亿美元，CAGR20202020202026，而ADAS在2026年将超过600亿美元，CAGR202020202020266。共享将在2026年以10.39％的CAGR2020-2026达到约30亿美元，而电气化将在2026年达到288.804亿美元，为53.45％CAGR202020202020202026

在这种情况下，Yole分析师已经确定了这些细分市场的许多技术趋势。在连通性领域，市场观察者认为，如今正在设计用于5G实施的V2X通信平台，预计将在2024年进行解决方案。与此同时，最初的解决方案开始出现Dual-4G和前向兼容的5G功能。。

对于ADAS段（包括较宽的术语“驾驶自动化”），Cole期望雷达和摄像机是OEM使用的主要传感器，因为它们的性能相当且相对便宜。几年来，LIDAR传感器一直在慢慢进入汽车行业，以提供更多的自动驾驶功能。

Sharing vehicles also creates new use cases and calls for new technological equipment for these cars. In this segment, Yole sees that new habits related to cars are emerging and “Gen Y” now desire connectivity, convenience and the possibility to choose from different range of transportation. They are shaping an industry in which in-demand car service providers are growing.

在此转换过程中，最明显的段是电气化。在这里，OEM宣布了未来5年的投资计划，全球超过2500亿美元。汽车电气化的时间表非常激进，因为在15年内，OEM将不得不开发全电动的整个汽车投资组合。

所有这些趋势都极大地影响了汽车供应链。当前的芯片短缺，越来越多的半导体含量和电气化将导致供应链管理的变化：OEM必须直接与芯片制造商进行谈判，向消费行业学习并保留“缓冲库存”。

The development of electric vehicles and self-driving technologies naturally attracts OEMs and Tier-1 component suppliers. Therefore, new OEMs like Nio, Xpeng, and Lucid Motors, among others, have recently entered the industry. Other players coming from the semiconductor or the consumer industries will enter the field as well. In this race to full autonomy, large OEMs with many resources – like Volkswagen – are developing the necessary software by themselves or will partner with or acquire robotic vehicle companies. Generalist OEMs with few resources are expected to rely on Tier-1s to develop basic automated driving features. These Tier-1s will have to master camera, radar, lidar sensors, and computing platforms.

公司从半导体,比如Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Intel-Mobileye, are positioning themselves, sometimes through acquisitions, at the center of automated driving systems, highlights Pierrick Boulay, Technology & Market Analyst, Solid-state Lighting at Yole. “For example, Qualcomm is in talk to acquire Veoneer to reinforce its position in the automotive industry”.

Companies coming from the consumer industry, like Apple, Huawei, or Xiaomi, are also entering the market. Depending on their strategy, they could develop only the self-driving part or the entire electric car, like Huawei is doing. Foxconn, known for its assembly role in the Apple supply chain, is partnering with several companies such as Apple and Stellantis and is increasing its automotive-related business. This new role of subcontractor, like Foxconn, is growing, and a recent partnership between Fisker and Magna showed that Magna will assemble the car. In the future, it could be possible to see new automotive OEMs being fabless and relying on the experience of subcontractors.

这些预测在研究中可以通过Yole进行here。

www.yole.fr

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