Future of TSMC becomes pawn in China-US tensions
Chip Foundry TSMC直接吸引到中国与台湾美国之间的不断增长的紧张局势
A recent paper by two US academics includes the threat of destroying the facilities of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. on the island. This would have such an economic impact on Taiwan and China as to strike at the governability of Greater China, according to Jared McKinney and Peter Harris, writing in the US Army War College Quaterly called Parameters (“Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,”Parameters 51, no. 4 (2021): pages 23 to 36).
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作者指出：“除非美国领导人真正愿意与第三次抗衡台湾战斗，否则他们将做得很好，以考虑不依赖军事报复威胁的威慑策略。”作者认为，“通过量身定制的威慑套餐，不顾一切地威胁大国战是可能的，也是必要的。
In the 20th century the US enjoyed a clear military superiority to China and so a policy of “deterrence by denial” was credible. That is no longer the case and therefore a policy of making Taiwan an expensive liability and ‘unwantable’ was necessary. This is described in the paper as “deterrence by punishment.”
The paper quotes a Chinese analyst with connections in the Chinese Navy saying that the expectation is that the People’s Liberation Army would expect to over-run Taiwan within 14 hours while it would take the United States and Japan 24 hours to respond.
However, if TSMC’s facilities went permanently offline as soon as China invaded, companies around the world would find it difficult to continue operations. While this would be burdensome for many it would hit China hardest and be preferable to an escalating war between super-powers, the authors argue.
China’s high-tech industries would be halted at exactly the time the country was involved in a war effort. Even after its acquisition of Taiwan, the destruction of the semiconductor ecosystem would likely reverse China’s sustained economic growth. This is in turn would create problems for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
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The authors’ view is that CCP is allowed to rule by the Chinese people because in return the CCP provides an ever-rising standard of living. An interruption to the rise in the standard of living could promote civil unrest within mainland China, and would be a most effective deterrent, according to McKinney and Harris.
Broken nest refers to the Chinese proverb: How can there be any whole eggs beneath a broken nest?”
麦金尼（McKinney）和哈里斯（Harris）得出结论，没有什么方法来阻止中国对台湾的入侵而没有冲突的风险。“在接下来的十年左右的时间里，阻止中国侵略的最佳方法在降低大功率冲突的机会的同时是遵循上面概述的道路：如果战争，巢穴破裂；如果和平，可以容忍的现状。”
“Broken Nest: Deterring China from Invading Taiwan,”
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